CAN THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES FINISH THE REGULAR SEASON UNDEFEATED?
It’s probably too early to talk about the odds of the Philadelphia Eagles going unbeaten in the regular season. Or is it?
Let’s first talk about the next game where the Eagles are underdogs. Then we’ll talk about that whole perfect season thing. Sound good?
As Philly reaches its bye week, BetMGM Vice President of Trading Jason Scott and FOX Bet Trading Operations Senior Manager Dylan Brossman provide their oddsmaking analysis on how the rest of this so-far-sterling Eagles season might unfold.
What is Eagles ceiling after beating Cowboys in week 6?
It’s probably too early to talk about the odds of the Philadelphia Eagles going unbeaten in the regular season. Or is it?
Let’s first talk about the next game where the Eagles are underdogs. Then we’ll talk about that whole perfect season thing. Sound good?
As Philly reaches its bye week, BetMGM Vice President of Trading Jason Scott and FOX Bet Trading Operations Senior Manager Dylan Brossman provide their oddsmaking analysis on how the rest of this so-far-sterling Eagles season might unfold.
Jalen Hurts & Co. have been favorites in NFL betting odds every week this season. The Eagles are a perfect 6-0 straight up (SU), and they’ve done well for bettors, too, at 4-2 against the spread (ATS).
In Week 6, in prime-time Sunday night against the rival Dallas Cowboys, some thought Philly might hit a speed bump. But the Eagles built a 20-3 halftime lead, held off a Cowboys rally to win, and covered 26-17 as 6.5-point home favorites.
“Interestingly, the Eagles were a winner for us on Sunday night against Dallas,” Scott said.
Looking ahead, it could be awhile before Philadelphia is an underdog this season. It might not happen until January or, dare we say it, February.
“If they continue winning and are uninjured, they will certainly be the favorite in every game up to Cowboys on Christmas Eve,” Scott said.
And even at Dallas on the day before Christmas, Philly might not be an underdog.
“If both teams at full strength played in Dallas tomorrow, it would be a pick ‘em,” Scott stated.
Potential Pitfalls
Between now and that big Christmas Eve game, Scott fully expects Philadelphia to be favored weekly — again, provided Hurts and his teammates stay healthy. That includes a potentially difficult four-game stretch from Weeks 11-14: at Indianapolis, vs. Green Bay, against Tennessee and at the resurgent rival New York Giants.
But Scott also added a cautionary note for the next game on the docket, the day before Halloween, in a Keystone State battle.
“Mike Tomlin as a ‘dog can never be underestimated,” Scott said.
Some might scoff at that notion. After all, look-ahead NFL betting lines out this week show the Eagles as 10-point home favorites in Week 8 against the Steelers. But the Steelers were 9.5-point home underdogs to Tampa Bay in Week 6, and how’d that work out for Tom Brady and the Bucs?
In case you missed it, Pittsburgh won outright, 20-18.
NFC East: Lock Eagles at No. 1 seed
The Road Ahead
Per FOX Sports NFL Writer Warren Sharp, the Eagles had the second-easiest strength of schedule heading into the season. As for what lies ahead, ESPN currently ranks Philadelphia’s remaining strength of schedule as the easiest in the league (32 out of 32 teams).
“Before the season, the Eagles were projected to have the second-weakest strength of schedule (based on projected win totals), and through six games this season, Philadelphia has faced just two teams with records of .500 or better — the Vikings and the Cowboys — and both games were at home,” Brossman explained.
Brossman is highly skeptical of the Eagles posting a perfect season.
“Philadelphia’s remaining 11-game schedule is far from the league’s most difficult, but things will get tougher, as the Eagles will face six teams who currently hold winning records, and three of them will be on the road (Colts, Giants and Cowboys),” Brossman said. “The Eagles have looked like the best team in the NFC up to this point, but there are simply too many games and too many chances for injury to expect the Birds to run the table.”
To Rest or Not To Rest
If Philly is favored in every game through Christmas Eve, as Scott projects, then the final two games get interesting. The Eagles will almost assuredly be favored in Week 17 at home against the New Orleans Saints.
But what if Philadelphia suffers a loss or two between now and then, and its playoff position is already locked in?
“It will then depend on how many they rest in Week 18 against the Giants,” Scott said while adding a salient point. “It would be hard to rest [players] if they are 16-0.”
And that would be a juicy NFL betting plotline for the Eagles. In fact, BetMGM is already offering a proposition bet on Philadelphia going 17-0. The odds are +1400, meaning a $100 wager would net $1,400 if Philly has a perfect regular season.
“It’s very popular in Pennsylvania,” Scott said, noting plenty of tickets written on that prop bet. “History says it won’t happen, particularly with a young QB.”
Jalen Hurts, Eagles favored to remain undefeated on the
It’s probably too early to talk about the odds of the Philadelphia Eagles going unbeaten in the regular season. Or is it?
Let’s first talk about the next game where the Eagles are underdogs. Then we’ll talk about that whole perfect season thing. Sound good?
As Philly reaches its bye week, BetMGM Vice President of Trading Jason Scott and FOX Bet Trading Operations Senior Manager Dylan Brossman provide their oddsmaking analysis on how the rest of this so-far-sterling Eagles season might unfold.
In Week 6, in prime-time Sunday night against the rival Dallas Cowboys, some thought Philly might hit a speed bump. But the Eagles built a 20-3 halftime lead, held off a Cowboys rally to win, and covered 26-17 as 6.5-point home favorites.
“Interestingly, the Eagles were a winner for us on Sunday night against Dallas,” Scott said.
Looking ahead, it could be awhile before Philadelphia is an underdog this season. It might not happen until January or, dare we say it, February.
“If they continue winning and are uninjured, they will certainly be the favorite in every game up to Cowboys on Christmas Eve,” Scott said.
And even at Dallas on the day before Christmas, Philly might not be an underdog.
“If both teams at full strength played in Dallas tomorrow, it would be a pick ‘em,” Scott stated.
Potential Pitfalls
Between now and that big Christmas Eve game, Scott fully expects Philadelphia to be favored weekly — again, provided Hurts and his teammates stay healthy. That includes a potentially difficult four-game stretch from Weeks 11-14: at Indianapolis, vs. Green Bay, against Tennessee and at the resurgent rival New York Giants.
But Scott also added a cautionary note for the next game on the docket, the day before Halloween, in a Keystone State battle.
“Mike Tomlin as a ‘dog can never be underestimated,” Scott said.
Some might scoff at that notion. After all, look-ahead NFL betting lines out this week show the Eagles as 10-point home favorites in Week 8 against the Steelers. But the Steelers were 9.5-point home underdogs to Tampa Bay in Week 6, and how’d that work out for Tom Brady and the Bucs?
In case you missed it, Pittsburgh won outright, 20-18.
NFC East: Lock Eagles at No. 1
The Road Ahead
Per FOX Sports NFL Writer Warren Sharp, the Eagles had the second-easiest strength of schedule heading into the season. As for what lies ahead, ESPN currently ranks Philadelphia’s remaining strength of schedule as the easiest in the league (32 out of 32 teams).
“Before the season, the Eagles were projected to have the second-weakest strength of schedule (based on projected win totals), and through six games this season, Philadelphia has faced just two teams with records of .500 or better — the Vikings and the Cowboys — and both games were at home,” Brossman explained.
Brossman is highly skeptical of the Eagles posting a perfect season.
“Philadelphia’s remaining 11-game schedule is far from the league’s most difficult, but things will get tougher, as the Eagles will face six teams who currently hold winning records, and three of them will be on the road (Colts, Giants and Cowboys),” Brossman said. “The Eagles have looked like the best team in the NFC up to this point, but there are simply too many games and too many chances for injury to expect the Birds to run the table.”
To Rest or Not To Rest
If Philly is favored in every game through Christmas Eve, as Scott projects, then the final two games get interesting. The Eagles will almost assuredly be favored in Week 17 at home against the New Orleans Saints.
But what if Philadelphia suffers a loss or two between now and then, and its playoff position is already locked in?
“It will then depend on how many they rest in Week 18 against the Giants,” Scott said while adding a salient point. “It would be hard to rest [players] if they are 16-0.”
And that would be a juicy NFL betting plotline for the Eagles. In fact, BetMGM is already offering a proposition bet on Philadelphia going 17-0. The odds are +1400, meaning a $100 wager would net $1,400 if Philly has a perfect regular season.
“It’s very popular in Pennsylvania,” Scott said, noting plenty of tickets written on that prop bet. “History says it won’t happen, particularly with a young QB.”
Jalen Hurts, Eagles favored to remain undefeated on the season
More Popular Plays
With Philly already off to a 6-0 start, there are other markets drawing interest from bettors. One BetMGM prop offering is an adjusted season win total of Over/Under 13.5. Over is a -140 favorite, meaning one would have to bet $140 to win $100; Under is a +115 underdog, meaning a $100 bet would net $115 if the Eagles win 13 games or fewer in the regular season.
Scott said if it were his money, he’d ride the hot hand.
“Personally, with that schedule, I would prefer to be on the Over.”
Of course, the Eagles are now a very popular play in Super Bowl odds, too. Kudos to anyone who jumped on the Philly bandwagon early. Back in February, when the odds to win the Super Bowl were first posted, you could get the Eagles at +4000, meaning a $100 bet could turn into $4,000. FOX Bet opened Philly a little shorter than other books, at +3100.
Regardless, with Philadelphia’s red-hot start, that kind of value is long gone. By Week 5, the Eagles shortened all the way to +650, so that $100 bet would only net $650. After the win over the Cowboys, Philly moved to +550 to win it all at FOX Bet.
Now, only one team has shorter Super Bowl odds than the Eagles: the Buffalo Bills at +275.
But bettors are hitting more than just the Eagles’ Super Bowl futures market.
“We are seeing persistent money, including on MVP and Coach of the Year,” Scott said.
And again, here’s hoping you jumped on Hurts’ NFL MVP odds early. The QB opened at +4000 and is now +400, the second choice, behind only Bills QB Josh Allen (+150).
Ditto for Eagles coach Nick Sirianni. He opened +1600 at BetMGM and is now the +140 favorite in NFL Coach of the Year odds. Giants coach Brian Daboll is the +425 second choice, and no one else is shorter than +1100.
Patrick Everson:
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