Biggest Strengths, Weaknesses of NFL Playoff Teams in NFC and AFC Championship Games
The Final Four is set. Not that Final Four, silly. The important one.
With the divisional round of the NFL playoffs in the books, we’re just two games away from knowing who will face off in Super Bowl LVII in Glendale, Arizona. In the AFC, the Cincinnati Bengals will travel to face the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of last year’s AFC title game that is already shrouded in uncertainty. In the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers will face the unenviable task of doing what the New York Giants most assuredly could not—slow down the juggernaut that is the Philadelphia Eagles.
The teams left alive in the postseason tournament are all excellent in multiple areas—there isn’t a club left that won fewer than 12 games this season. But each has a facet of the game or position where they are better than excellent. Where they are dominant. Where they are that their best.
Conversely, while these teams might not lose very often, they also are not invincible. There’s an area of the game where even great teams struggle at times. A weakness that opponents can potentially exploit.
And the teams that play to their strengths and exploit their opponents’ weaknesses will be the ones moving on to State Farm Stadium.
Cincinnati Bengals’ Biggest Strength: Passing-Game Weaponry
Ja’Marr Chase
Ja’Marr ChaseBryan M. Bennett/Getty Images
Given that the Cincinnati Bengals are one win away from representing the AFC in the Super Bowl for the second straight year and have beaten Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in their last three meetings (including last year’s AFC Championship Game), it’s not unreasonable to say that Cincy (and not the Chiefs) are the team to beat in the conference. And make no mistake, it’s no coincidence that the Bengals’ rise to prominence coincides with the arrival of Joe Burrow.
But a quarterback is only as good as the weapons around him. And part of the reason that “Joe Cool” has been so frosty the past two seasons is the embarrassment of riches around him in the passing game.
Before Sunday’s dominant win over the Buffalo Bills, Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase sent some eyebrows skyward when he told ESPN’s Kimberley A. Martin that Burrow is on “another level” from Buffalo’s Josh Allen.
“Burrow is a true quarterback. Look, Josh Allen’s a great QB too, but Joe can do it all. Josh Allen’s game revolves around just being a dual-threat, running QB. That’s not bad. But Joe’s more of a Peyton Manning, Tom Brady-type of QB,” said Chase.
Whether or not you believe Chase’s assertion, one thing is undeniable—Burrow’s weapons are markedly better than Allen’s. Both young passers have dominant, top-five wideouts at their disposal in Chase and Stefon Diggs. But the complementary options around Chase are much better.
Frankly, it’s borderline insulting to call Tee Higgins a “complementary option”—the third-year pro has eclipsed 1,000 yards each of the last two years and would be the No. 1 receiver for more than a few NFL teams. Tyler Boyd is an excellent slot man with two 1,000-yard seasons of his own. Tight end Hayden Hurst caught five passes for 59 yards and a score against Buffalo. Joe Mixon is one of the better receiving backs in the league.
It’s a matchup nightmare for defenses. Bracket Chase, and Higgins and Boyd will feast on single coverage. Play soft, and Hurst and Mixon will feast underneath.
Add in an elite quarterback in Burrow distributing the ball, and—good luck.
Cincinnati Bengals’ Biggest Weakness: Offensive Line
Jackson Carman
Jackson CarmanIan Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Before we go any further, let’s make something clear—the offensive line for the Cincinnati Bengals was outstanding against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Despite missing three starters, the Bengals dominated the trenches on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati piled up 172 rushing yards, tallied over five yards per carry and allowed just one sack.
Before the game, offensive coordinator Brian Callahan told reporters that the Bengals weren’t going to change how they ran the offense just because of their beat-up offensive front.
“They’ve all been getting reps in all the things that we do and how we run them,” Callahan said. “At this point in the year, it’s hard to introduce all kinds of shiny new things that are really going to change who you are. We’re still going to be who we are as an offense and run a lot of the things that we’ve run and have had success with over the course of the season.”
However, center Ted Karras admitted that the absence of players like guard Alex Cappa left the Bengals in a bind as the playoffs roll on.
“The O-line is a continuity and repetition position,” Karras said, via the Associated Press. “We’ve been repping all year, but it will be hard, especially to replace Alex because of our relationship, just how to ID the defense, how to distribute all our blockers. He’s been a humongous help to me, saved me a few times over the season. So, I had to step it up. Everyone’s got to step it up. Max (Scharping) has a great opportunity in front of him, and I’m excited to see how he performs.”
In fairness, Scharping and youngster Jackson Carman played well against the Bills, and a bad offensive line didn’t prevent the Bengals from winning the AFC a year ago. But for the second straight season, the Bengals were graded as one five worst offensive lines in the league. And while the Kansas City defense doesn’t get a lot of run, the Chiefs were quietly tops in the AFC with 55 sacks in 2022.
Biggest Strengths, Weaknesses of NFL Playoff Teams in NFC and AFC Championship Games
Kansas City Chiefs’ Biggest Strength: TE Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce
Travis KelceCooper Neill/Getty Images
The Kansas City Chiefs are an offensive juggernaut. Despite dealing wide receiver Tyreek Hill last offseason, Kansas City ranked first in the NFL in both total offense and scoring offense in 2022. It’s hardly a state secret that Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes deserves a great deal of credit for that success.
Mahomes led the league in passing yards and touchdown passes, and at the NFL Honors he will more likely than not be named the league’s Most Valuable Player.
But as great as Mahomes is, there isn’t a player in the entire NFL who stands farther above every other guy at his position than veteran tight end Travis Kelce.
Kelce was unstoppable in Saturday’s win over the Jaguars, hauling in 14 catches for 98 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The 14 receptions broke the record for catches in a playoff game by a tight end—set by Kelce in the 2021 AFC Championship Game.
After Kelce’s latest record-setting performance, Mahomes told reporters that the Chiefs wouldn’t be headed to a fifth straight AFC Championship Game were in not for the 33-year-old.
“He’s special, man. He’s a special player,” Mahomes said. “One-of-a-kind player that’s one of the main reasons we’ve been able to be in this position so many times.”
Kelce’s 110 receptions ranked third in the league and were 24 more than any other tight end. His 1,338 receiving yards were eighth in the league and were 424 more than any other tight end. His 12 touchdowns were second in the league and tops among tight ends. And his 152 targets were sixth in the NFL and 23 more than any other tight end.
It’s not like Kansas City’s opponents don’t know that Mahomes is going to target Kelce early and often.
But knowing it and being able to do anything about it are two different things.
Kansas City Chiefs’ Biggest Weakness: Patrick Mahomes’ Injured Ankle
Patrick MahomesCooper Neill/Getty Images
The Kansas City Chiefs taking part in the AFC Championship Game has become an annual event—this marks the fifth straight season that the Chiefs have advanced this far in the postseason.
But as the Chiefs prepare to face the Cincinnati Bengals at Arrowhead Stadium, there’s an elephant in the room. An 800-pound gorilla. A dark cloud that could derail the team’s quest for a championship.
The injured ankle of quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes missed the second quarter of Saturday’s win over Jacksonville. But after the game, tight end Travis Kelce said the team never doubted that, if at all possible, Mahomes would be out there with his teammates.
“We know that if it’s up to Pat, he’s going to be in there. I’m sure he had some words with everyone on the sideline that he wanted to be in there as fast as possible,” Kelce said.
“It’s just a different feeling when one-five is in there. He can make anything happen, even on one ankle.”
But while addressing the media after the victory over the Jaguars, head coach Andy Reid wasn’t willing to say definitively that Mahomes would be ready to go next week.
“We’ll see, we’ll see,” Reid said. “I don’t want to jump into anything. We’ll just see how it goes here the next couple of days. It’s going to be sore, I know. We’ll see where he’s at. He’s had this before, so he should be able to keep pushing actually against Jacksonville a couple of years ago. So, he pushed through that. The main thing is that he’s safe or as safe as you can be on a football field.”
To his credit, Chad Henne played well in relief of Mahomes. Mahomes also returned for the second half, and while he was visibly hobbled, he did enough to help his team get past the divisional round.
But high-ankle sprains don’t magically heal themselves, and there’s a difference between beating a nine-win Jaguars team and taking on an AFC powerhouse like the Bengals.
Kansas City may have other concerns, but right now everything pales in comparison to Mahomes’ availability—and effectiveness if he is out there.
San Francisco 49ers’ Biggest Strength: Nick Bosa and the Front Seven
If the San Francisco 49ers are going to “upset” the Philadelphia Eagles and advance to Super Bowl LVII, it’s not going to be in a shootout. If San Fran tries matching the Eagles touchdown for touchdown in a high-scoring affair, it’s not going to end well.
A 49ers victory is going to require a Herculean defensive effort. But as it happens, San Francisco has a defense that could be up to that task—especially up front.
With due respect to teams like the Cowboys and Eagles, the Niners possess the NFL’s (red and) gold standard where front sevens are concerned. The cornerstone of that front is edge-rusher Nick Bosa, who led the league in sacks and is a leading contender for Defensive Player of the Year honors. Cowboys edge-rusher Micah Parsons (who is a viable DPOY candidate in his own right) told reporters before Sunday’s divisional-round matchup that he admires both Bosa’s technique and his ferocity.
“He’ll go speed to power, he might rip the edge, but he shows the same, get off the same line to the quarterback,” Parsons said. “So, he’s very hard; you can’t guess with him because he’ll make you miss.
“So a guy like that, who’s always on the same line, straight and narrow and he can work outside, he can work inside, he can work right through you if you don’t want to give you hands to him.”
In addition to pressure on Jalen Hurts from Bosa and the defensive front, the 49ers will also have to account for Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, Hurts’ scrambling ability and a ground game that averaged over 147 yards per game on the ground. Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw and Azeez Al-Shaair form arguably the best trio of linebackers in the league, and Warner told reporters you won’t find a harder-working defense in the NFL.
“We all have different skill sets, different backgrounds, but we all love the hunt,” Warner says. “We love the stuff that most teams and most people don’t want to do, like the grind-y stuff of running to the football on every single play, of imposing your will, the violence of the game, we all take pride in that. That’s why it looks different when you watch us compared to other groups. The three of us feed off one another, the energy. It’s not something that has to be talked about or faked. We love the game and we love each other, and that’s what you see as the product.”
As well as the 49ers have played defensively this season, it’s going to take one of their best outings of the year to get past the Eagles and on to Glendale.
San Francisco 49ers’ Biggest Weakness: Quarterback Brock Purdy
It has been quite the ride for San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. The former Iowa State standout’s rise from “Mr. Irrelevant” to the starting quarterback has been well-documented. Now, not only is Purdy one win away from leading the 49ers to the Super Bowl, but Michael Silver of Bally Sports also reported last week that the Niners have already decided to roll with Purdy as their starter in 2023.
“I talked to two people with knowledge of the organization’s plans,” Silver tweeted, “and they confirmed what is already semi-obvious: The battle [with Trey Lance] is over, and Purdy has won.”
Before the playoffs started, Purdy expressed a candid reason for why he has been successful. There are a lot of really good players around him.
“I have so many playmakers around me I feel like I don’t have all the weight of the world on my shoulders to make something up,” Purdy said. “I just have to go through my progressions and throw checkdowns to guys like Deebo [Samuel] and Christian [McCaffrey], and they make guys miss. For me, it’s nice. I just have to distribute it to guys, and they come up with all the yards and stuff, which is fun to watch.”
Purdy’s playoff performances have borne that out. He topped 300 passing yards against the Seahawks with short passes and yards after the catch. Against Dallas, Purdy threw for a modest 214 yards and didn’t throw a touchdown pass.
Purdy is especially big. Or especially athletic. He’s not a special arm talent. He has succeeded by playing within the system. By (mostly) making good decisions with the ball. By not trying to do too much.
Against the Eagles, though, that most likely won’t be enough. The Eagles are going to score—Philly led the NFC at 28.1 points per game. Darius Slay and James Bradberry are as good a pair of man corners as there are in the NFL. No team allowed fewer passing yards per game or accrued more sacks.
To say that Philadelphia will be the stiffest test that Purdy has faced is an understatement. He may well be facing a deficit in the fourth quarter. He will absolutely be pressured with regularity.
And as impressive and surprising as Purdy has been, it’s in no way known that he’ll be up to the challenge.
Philadelphia Eagles’ Biggest Strength: Pass Rush
The Philadelphia Eagles are a team loaded with strengths. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are one of the league’s best one-two punches at wide receiver. The Philly backfield is deep and talented. The offensive line is arguably the best in the entire NFL. The secondary is loaded with talent. And quarterback Jalen Hurts has spent most of the 2022 season playing at an MVP level.
However, as stacked as Philly is in all those areas, there’s one facet of the game that stands out even among all those strengths.
The Eagles pass rush is abjectly terrifying.
In 2022, the Eagles amassed a staggering 70 sacks. A whopping four players (Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat, Javon Hargrave and Brandon Graham) hit the 10-sack mark. It’s the first time in NFL history a team has accomplished that feat.
Reddick, who finished second in the league with 16 sacks, had 1.5 of Philly’s five takedowns of Daniel Jones in the divisional-round blowout of the Giants. Adam Hermann of NBC Sports Philadelphia believes that the first-year Eagle deserves consideration for Defensive Player of the Year alongside the likes of Micah Parsons of the Dallas Cowboys.
“While the league has been drooling over Parsons [thanks in no small part to the team he plays for] a sleeping giant in Reddick has been dominating here in Philadelphia, and right now he’s playing the kind of football that wins you awards—and championships,” Hermann wrote.
For his part, Sweat told reporters that the Eagles’ success getting after the quarterback has most assuredly been a team effort.
“We’re trying to just get there,” he said. “That’s it. We rush as a group, so we know we take care of each other in our rush areas. That’s where we win. I mean, shoot, it’s just full speed. That’s how it is.”
The Giants were unable to generate much in the way of offense largely because Jones spent most of the game running for his life.
If the Eagles pass rush plays at that level next week, it’s hard to see how the 49ers will have any more success.
Philadelphia Eagles’ Biggest Weakness: Run Defense
“Biggest weakness” is a relative term with the Eagles. The reality is that had the team not been without quarterback Jalen Hurts for most of the last month of the season, Philly would probably have won more than the 14 games the team did in 2022.
The Eagles are considerable favorites in the NFC Championship Game for a reason. For the season, the Eagles were second in total defense, allowing just 301.5 yards per game. Philly was the only team in the NFL that surrendered under 180 passing yards per game. The Eagles were eighth in scoring defense. Offensively, the team was third in yards per game, ninth in passing yards, fifth in rushing yards and third in points scored.
Long story short, there’s very little that the Eagles don’t do at a high level. There is, however, one facet of the game where the Eagles are just average. One area that the Niners might be able to exploit in the NFC Championship Game next week.
The Eagles can be run on. For the regular season, the Eagles allowed 121.6 rushing yards per game—16th in the league.
Back in Week 10, the Washington Commanders handed the Eagles their first loss of the season and biggest defeat (11 points) of the year. In doing so, they offered a blueprint of what might be the best way to attack the Eagles. In that game, the Commanders barely averaged more than three yards a carry. But the team peeled off a whopping 49 carries and posted a two-to-one time of possession advantage.
That’s the best way to attack the Eagles. When a team is short on weaknesses, you have to exploit the ones that are there—even if they are slight. Pound away on the ground. Control the tempo of the game. Keep Hurts and the Eagles offense off the field.
It’s something of a long shot. But it may well be the only way to keep Philadelphia from rolling to the Super Bowl.
Gary Davenport:
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