Eagles Offensive Free-Agency Shopping Guide: Could Marcus Mariota Be The Next Backup QB?
On one hand, the Philadelphia Eagles have seven defensive starters and three other defensive contributors scheduled for free agency. With limited cap resources, replacing those departures will probably mean the team focuses less on tinkering with the offense this offseason.
On the other hand, with the defense expected to take a step back performance-wise, maybe the smart bet is to instead lean fully into keeping the offense a juggernaut.
Let’s run through each offensive position to preview how the team could approach free agency and what players might make sense.
Quarterback
The need: Solving the complicated No. 2 quarterback question is one of the most interesting challenges of the Eagles’ offseason. We know how much the organization values having a good backup quarterback under Jeffrey Lurie and Howie Roseman. Time and again, they have devoted significant resources to the role, both in salary and draft capital. It’s how they landed Jalen Hurts in the first place.
But with Hurts slated for a long-term contract, Gardner Minshew entering free agency and so many other holes for the Eagles to fill, finding a high-upside backup for a cap-strapped team with Super Bowl aspirations (and a starting quarterback who has been injured each of the last two seasons) is going to be difficult.
There seem like four viable paths:
1. Spending a mid-round draft pick to develop a rookie-contract No. 2. One of the great what-ifs in recent Eagles history is the team never would have selected Hurts in the second round had fifth-round pick Clayton Thorson worked out the year before. The problem with this plan is two-fold: There’s no guarantee such a player would work out (or be available) and the Eagles are only slated to have one pick between rounds three and six at the moment.
2. Sign a relatively cheap veteran backup to a one-year deal.
3. Commit to a higher-caliber veteran backup on a two-year deal structured to spend less against the cap in 2023.
4. Trade for someone.
Here’s a snapshot of the free-agent market, which is deeper at quarterback than in recent years. All stats are combined from 2021 to 2022.
Free-agent QBs
Lamar Jackson
26
0.02
7.2
63.8
Geno Smith
32
0.02
7.5
20.4
Daniel Jones
25
0.02
6.8
37.3
Derek Carr
31
0.05
7.4
6.6
Jimmy Garoppolo
31
0.14
8.3
3.4
Jacoby Brissett
30
0.01
6.6
19.6
Baker Mayfield
27
-0.07
6.9
9.3
Marcus Mariota
29
0.02
7.4
40.4
Andy Dalton
35
-0.02
7.1
6.5
Gardner Minshew
26
0.14
8.1
6
Taylor Heinicke
29
-0.06
7
17
Teddy Bridgewater
30
0.08
7.4
8.3
Carson Wentz
30
-0.02
6.7
12.5
Sam Darnold
25
-0.06
6.7
19.3
Mike White
27
-0.03
7
1.1
Tyler Huntley*
25
-0.1
5.8
53.9
Jarrett Stidham
26
0.05
7.9
42
Cooper Rush
29
-0.02
7
-0.3
Drew Lock
26
-0.02
7.1
17.7
Josh Dobbs
28
-0.15
6
22
Case Keenum
35
-0.15
5.9
11
Mason Rudolph
27
-0.18
4.8
53
*Restricted free agent
You’ll notice Minshew is tied with Jimmy Garoppolo for the best expected points added (EPA) per dropback of the entire class over the past two seasons. Perhaps that’s more of an indictment of the stat than anything else, but Minshew figures to have a market even if there are more so-called starters available. If he can’t find a team willing to give him a chance to compete for the top job, the Eagles would probably welcome a reunion.
Best fit: If the goal is to find a No. 2 quarterback who would allow the quarterback-inclusive run game to continue being a big part of the offense, Marcus Mariota is probably the best bet. The bonus is he won’t count against the compensatory pick formula since he was released by Atlanta. It’s possible his acrimonious end with the Falcons depresses his value enough to bring him within the Eagles’ price range.
Mariota was also a teammate for three seasons in Tennessee with new quarterbacks coach Alex Tanney. Restricted free agents Tyler Huntley and Sam Darnold, who showed some rushing ability down the stretch with Carolina this season, would also make sense to some degree.
The rest: Teddy Bridgewater could be a bounce-back option after an injury-plagued season with the Dolphins. Jacoby Brissett is a Nick Sirianni favorite but will probably be too expensive for the Eagles given how well he played in Cleveland last season. Drew Lock could be a cheaper option, and the Eagles have dipped into the prospect-rebuild bucket before. Mike White, who impressed with the Jets by not being Zach Wilson, could make sense to a lesser degree.
On the trade front, Wilson himself has been floated as a possibility given the Eagles’ reported interest in him during the 2021 pre-draft process. That’s probably far-fetched considering the high base salary for a player who has performed as poorly as Wilson has, but crazier things have happened.
Finally, two likely cap cuts jump out as wild-card options. One is Jameis Winston, who would offer some high-upside variance but has been plagued by injuries each of the past three seasons. The other is Matt Ryan, who will turn 38 this offseason. Ryan has yet to commit to retirement and would offer relevant experience as a franchise quarterback to Hurts and a quarterback room set to be led by the inexperienced Tanney.
Running back
The need: After four years as the Eagles’ lead back, Miles Sanders is set to hit free agency. He has professed a desire to return to Philadelphia, but it’s hard to imagine the Eagles offering him a more lucrative contract than he’ll find elsewhere.
Sanders is coming off his most productive season in which he ran for a career-high 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns while earning Pro Bowl honors for the first time. He has explosive long speed and proved to be a tougher inside runner in 2022 than in years past. Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard have received the franchise tag, and it’s possible Saquon Barkley will as well, in which case Sanders would be the consensus top running back on the open market. Otherwise, he’ll play second fiddle to Barkley again.
Considering their organizational philosophy and offseason constraints, it’s hard to believe the Eagles will make Sanders a priority. With Hurts and one of the league’s best offensive lines, they offer the most running back-friendly offense in the league.
Meanwhile, Kenneth Gainwell overtook Sanders down the stretch, with 236 yards from scrimmage during the playoffs to Sanders’ 151 and 90 snaps to Sanders’ 75. And while there are situational reasons why it would look this way, the Eagles have been better on offense with Sanders off the field than with him on over the course of his career.
Miles Sanders on/off splits
2022 EPA per rush
0.08
0.17
2022 EPA per play
0.05
0.08
2018-2022 EPA per rush
0.00
0.04
2018-2022 EPA per play
-0.02
0.04
Still, with Boston Scott also scheduled for free agency, the Eagles will need to add to a running back room that now includes only Gainwell, Trey Sermon and Kennedy Brooks. The draft figures to play a role, but here’s a look at the relevant free agents, again with combined stats from the last two seasons.
Free-agent RBs
Mark Ingram
33
787
29.7%
230
Saquon Barkley
26
1905
34.1%
601
Jerick McKinnon
30
353
34.5%
619
David Montgomery
25
1650
36.6%
617
Alexander Mattison
24
774
37.5%
319
Jeff Wilson
27
1154
38.8%
216
Kareem Hunt
27
854
39.3%
384
Samaje Perine
27
640
39.3%
483
Darrell Henderson
25
971
39.7%
278
Rashaad Penny
27
1095
39.8%
64
Devin Singletary
25
1689
40.5%
508
Damien Harris
26
1391
40.6%
229
Boston Scott
27
590
41.1%
98
Jamaal Williams
27
1667
41.2%
230
Raheem Mostert
30
911
41.5%
202
Tony Pollard
25
1726
41.8%
708
D’Ernest Johnson
27
576
42.3%
144
D’Onta Foreman
26
1480
42.5%
149
Leonard Fournette
28
1480
42.5%
977
Josh Jacobs
25
2525
42.8%
748
Miles Sanders
25
2023
43.2%
236
The fits: The Eagles are likely to exercise patience in filling the void left by Sanders and Scott (seemingly the more likely of the two to return). As opposed to backup quarterback, where they figure to have real preferences for the player they want to bring in, the team will probably wait out the running back market and choose from whoever is still available. Presumably, anyone who would qualify for the compensatory pick formula need not apply.
• D’Onta Foreman’s market might end up being too robust for the Eagles, but he would probably welcome the change in scheme. No running back in the league faced a higher percentage of eight-man boxes over the last two seasons than Foreman, according to Next Gen Stats. After taking over for an injured Derrick Henry in Tennessee in 2021, he took over for the traded Christian McCaffrey in Carolina in 2022 and ran for 914 yards on 4.5 yards per carry. At 6-foot-1, 236 pounds, Foreman is the kind of physically imposing back the Eagles haven’t had in some time. Maybe the long-term plan for protecting Hurts after he signs his big contract is to take some of the short-yardage responsibility off his plate.
• Another area in which the Eagles’ running backs have been underwhelming over the past couple of seasons is in pass protection. If that ends up being a priority, Devin Singletary has experience, with the third-most pass-blocking snaps in the league among running backs over the past two seasons, according to TruMedia. Other available running backs who are trustworthy in that area include David Montgomery, Jamaal Williams, Mark Ingram and Damien Harris.
• Leonard Fournette is the kind of player who has intrigued Roseman in the past. Because he was released by the Bucs, the 28-year-old won’t qualify for the compensatory pick formula. But he’s coming off a down year in which he rushed for just 3.5 yards per carry and finished fourth from the bottom in rushing yards over expected per rush (-0.36), ahead of only Melvin Gordon, Michael Carter and James Robinson. Montgomery also finished in the bottom 10.
• A pair of bounce-back candidates who could be available for cheap upside swings late in free agency: Rashaad Penny and D’Ernest Johnson, who finished No. 1 and No. 2 in rushing yards over expected per carry in 2021. Penny suffered a season-ending ankle injury and fibula fracture in October.
The Browns tendered Johnson as a restricted free agent last offseason, but then kept him out of the offense entirely in 2022, giving him a grand total of four carries. Johnson’s teammate Kareem Hunt, who was linked to the Eagles as a potential trade target over the summer, is also a free agent.
• Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook and Nyheim Hines are all possible cap casualties. The Eagles expressed interest in both Mixon and Cook in the pre-draft process. Hines is a Sirianni favorite, though his skill set probably overlaps too closely with Gainwell’s.
Wide receiver
The need: Only Zach Pascal is scheduled for free agency among Eagles wide receivers, which means they’ll need to replace 29 percent of the snaps taken at the position in 2022. Pascal could also be re-signed, given that Sirianni values his willingness to attempt the dirty work at the position and Pascal’s affinity for the locker room.
The greater need is finding a way to squeeze a little more out of the high-leverage targets that were given to Quez Watkins in 2022. Watkins has enough speed to alter the shape of opposing defenses, but he had enough high-profile mistakes down the stretch to make the fan base eager to find competition at the position.
The Eagles are unlikely to pay for such a player given the myriad needs elsewhere and the knowledge that A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are going to soak up most of the offensive targets. A mid- or late-round draftee would make sense. Otherwise, they’re likely to keep tabs on the bottom of the free-agent market in case a deal presents itself that seems too good to be true.
Here are a few players to keep in mind, with their combined stats over the past two seasons.
Free-agent WRs
Mack Hollins
29
913
1.12
13.25
Parris Campbell
25
785
1.09
8.25
Robert Woods
30
1083
1.38
7.96
Olamide Zaccheaus
25
939
1.29
10.52
Marvin Jones
32
1361
1.24
12.48
Dante Pettis
27
332
0.89
8.32
Greg Dortch
24
482
1.32
4.48
Jarvis Landry
30
842
1.60
8.49
Mecole Hardman
24
990
1.57
7.58
Miles Boykin
26
17
0.39
13.0
Corey Davis*
28
1028
1.52
13.22
Kendrick Bourne*
27
1234
1.78
9.19
Russell Gage*
27
1196
1.57
7.71
*Possible cap casualties
The fits: Parris Campbell is famously the player the Eagles almost drafted instead of J.J. Arcega-Whiteside back in 2019. He’s had an injury-riddled career thus far but caught 63 passes for 623 yards in 2022, the first time he topped 200 yards receiving in a season. He has high-end speed — and was tracked by Next Gen Stats with the fastest speed for a ball carrier last season — but will probably fetch a real enough contract that will price him out of the Eagles’ range.
Old friend Mack Hollins had a career year in Las Vegas with 690 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 57 catches. He’s something of a combination of Watkins and Pascal in that he’s willing to do the blocking work required of the offense and has made his living as a deep threat. His average air yards per target of 13.3 over the past two seasons is 13th in the league and the deepest of the free-agent class.
If speed at all costs is the goal, Mecole Hardman has a 4.33-second 40-yard dash on his résumé. It’s hard to expect too much of a wide receiver who couldn’t find a way to be more productive in an offense with Patrick Mahomes at the helm.
Veterans with know-how who might want an opportunity to ring-chase include Robert Woods, Jarvis Landry and Marvin Jones. Moving on from Watkins would probably be required for any of those to make sense because the Eagles need one of their top four receivers to contribute on special teams. Miles Boykin has become a special teams demon to compensate for his underwhelming offensive output as a 2019 third-round pick.
Tight end
The need: There isn’t one. Goedert, Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra are all under team control and Tyree Jackson is an exclusive-right free agent, which means he’s all but assured of returning. It’s possible the Eagles try to add a more explosive long-term counterpart to (and eventual replacement for) Goedert via the draft, but that’s a luxury they won’t bother spending on during free agency.
Offensive line
The need: The question seems to be whether the Eagles will lose both Jason Kelce and Isaac Seumalo, or only one of them. The 35-year-old Kelce has less time than usual to make his decision on whether to continue playing or not. If he returns, 2022 second-round pick Cam Jurgens will be expected to take over at right guard.
If Kelce chooses to retire, Jurgens will take over at center and the team will have to decide whether to pay to retain the 29-year-old Seumalo, who has played so many roles for the team over the years.
Armed with two first-round picks, the Eagles might choose to move on from Seumalo regardless. And the benefit of Lurie making Jeff Stoutland one of the highest-paid offensive line coaches in the league is that the team can trust him to develop the next wave of starters. Even if Kelce and Seumalo leave, the Eagles won’t have to pay for a veteran placeholder.
The only veteran offensive lineman who could be too good to pass up is the Browns’ Michael Dunn, a restricted free agent who can play all three interior positions.
The Eagles saw Dunn dominate up close during last summer’s joint practices in Cleveland and in the second preseason game. Dunn and Stoutland even shared the field at this year’s combine working with the class of draft-eligible offensive linemen. No bias here.
Bo Wuff:
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